US pending home sales sink to lowest level in Redfin records

US pending home sales fell to the lowest level in records dating back to 2021, according to Redfin data for the four weeks ending October 18, 2026. Pending home sales are signed contracts that have not yet closed, so they give an early read on where completed sales are heading. When pending home sales fall, closed sales usually follow in the weeks after.

Pending home sales declined 1.9% from a week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, to 281,749. Compared with a year earlier, pending home sales were down 14.4%. For the second week in a row, pending home sales declined in all 50 of the most populous US metro areas.

Weekly average mortgage rates are holding steady at 7.4%, Redfin said, pricing out many house hunters, and mortgage rates remain the main force behind the drop. That rate level is the main force behind the drop in pending home sales. Buyers who signed contracts earlier in the year at lower rates have closed. Buyers facing 7.4% today are signing fewer new contracts.

Why pending home sales fell to a record low

Pending sales fell because the monthly payment rose even while prices barely moved. The median monthly mortgage payment for a homebuyer reached $2,796 at a 7.4% mortgage rate, up 10.4% from a year earlier and the second-highest level in Redfin records. Home prices, by contrast, showed a median sale price of $390,614, up just 0.2% from a year earlier. The median asking price was $399,629 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 0.9%.

That combination explains the drop in pending sales. Prices have not fallen enough to offset the higher rate, so the payment keeps rising. A buyer who could afford a $390,614 home a year ago faces a payment more than 10% higher today for a home at almost the same price. Many buyers respond by waiting, and waiting shows up first as fewer signed contracts.

The metro detail underlines the point. Pending sales fell most in Seattle, down 28.8% from a year earlier, followed by San Diego at 25.4%, Atlanta at 23.8%, Denver at 21% and Las Vegas at 20.6%. Those are large falls in markets with different prices and different local conditions. The shared factor is the national rate level for mortgage rates, which hits high-priced markets hardest because the loan is larger.

Sale prices moved in both directions across metros, and home prices are losing steam nationally, Redfin said, after two weeks of 0.1% increases in the median sale price.

How pending home sales relate to listings and inventory

Pending sales and new listings fell together in the latest four-week period. New listings declined 1.4% from a week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, to 354,412, the biggest weekly decline in three months. New listings were down 2.7% from a year earlier. Homeowners are taking note of slow demand, Redfin said, and fewer are putting homes on the market.

Housing inventory is still growing, but barely. Active listings inched up 0.1% week over week to 1,507,161, up 2.1% from a year earlier. Housing inventory holds up because buyers are not depleting the pool very quickly, even though new listings are falling. Redfin notes there are hundreds of thousands more home sellers than buyers throughout the country, giving buyers the most negotiating power they have had in over a decade.

Months of supply rose to 4.4, up from 4.0. Four to five months of supply is considered balanced, Redfin notes, so the market is now close to that range. A balanced market does not mean an easy market. Homes are taking longer to sell, with a median of 50 days on market, up one day from the prior period. The share of homes off the market in two weeks fell to 28.3% from 29%.

What low pending home sales signal for the weeks ahead

Pending sales are a leading signal, so the latest low points to weak closed sales in the coming weeks. Contracts signed in the four weeks ending October 18 would normally close in November and December. If fewer contracts were signed, fewer closings will follow, unless a fall in rates brings buyers back quickly.

For now, pending sales tell a clear story. Buyers are pulling back at 7.4%, sellers are listing less, and prices are rising only slightly. The market will stay slow until the payment falls, either because rates ease or because prices adjust enough to bring the monthly cost down.