Nuvama warns housing sales face pressure in 2026

India's housing sales are set to stay under pressure through calendar 2026, according to a new report from Nuvama. The brokerage expects luxury housing sales to cool as well, which could leave more unsold homes in that part of the market. The report points to falling affordability, a shortage of mid-income homes and weak job creation as the reasons demand is softening. Housing sales fell 3 per cent year on year in September 2026 and dropped 17 per cent from August, the report said.

September housing sales fell in most big cities

Chennai recorded a 16 per cent year-on-year fall in September, while Pune dropped 9 per cent. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Hyderabad each fell 24 per cent. The National Capital Region and Bengaluru were the only two cities where absorption rose, up 3 to 6 per cent each in the same month, the report noted.

Across the top seven cities, sales volumes fell 8 per cent year on year in September, while sales value fell by just 3 per cent. The gap points to a premiumisation trend, with buyers shifting towards higher-priced properties even as fewer homes change hands. That shift is one reason the brokerage expects price growth in calendar 2026 to be mid-single digit at best.

The gap between the volume and value figures shows the mix of what is selling has moved upmarket. Fewer homes changed hands in September than a year earlier, but the homes that did sell carried higher prices on average. That is the premiumisation trend the report points to, and it helps explain why overall sales value fell only 3 per cent.

Luxury housing sales expected to moderate in 2026

The luxury segment is where the report sees the clearest change. As sales moderate there, unsold stock is likely to build up, the report said. The report expects that pattern to continue into calendar 2026, with demand in the luxury segment cooling further.

City detail in the report underlines how uneven the slowdown is. The two cities where absorption rose, the National Capital Region and Bengaluru, stood apart from the rest of the top seven in September. Everywhere else, the year-on-year comparisons pointed the same way, and housing sales fell by nearly a quarter in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Hyderabad.

New supply stays subdued as housing sales slow

New housing launches across the top seven cities stayed subdued in September. Supply fell 14 per cent year on year and 26 per cent month on month during the month, the report said.

The report cites declining home affordability, limited availability of mid-income housing and weak job creation as the pressures behind the softer volumes. Those three factors, taken together, explain why Nuvama sees little relief for housing sales in the months ahead.

Luxury housing also shapes the supply pipeline. The report's September supply figures, down 14 per cent year on year and 26 per cent month on month, show builders pulling back on new projects in the same month that sales slipped.

For the India housing market, the near-term picture is one of adjustment. Volumes have slipped, values have held up better, and supply has thinned. The report's forecast of mid-single-digit price growth at best in calendar 2026 fits that picture.

September's numbers close with sales down year on year in Chennai, Pune, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Hyderabad, and new supply down 14 per cent across the top seven cities. The India housing market enters the final quarter of 2026 with that mixed picture in place.